Why A Broad Horizon Matters in Strategic Foresight
To stay ahead, organisations must widen their lens, exploring not just their own industry but what’s happening on the edges.
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It’s a scenario we’ve seen time and again: a company anticipates the next big thing and pours resources into it. Yet, a few years down the line, they find themselves outpaced by a competitor who saw what they missed. To stay ahead, organisations must widen their lens, exploring not just their own industry but what’s happening on the edges.
You might think that subject-matter experts, with their years of specialised knowledge, would be the best at predicting what’s next in their industry. But surprisingly, they’re often not just bad at it; they are worse than non-experts.
In a study spanning over two decades, Professor Philip Tetlock asked a group of experts to estimate the likelihood of various events, both within and outside their fields. After more than 80,000 forecasts, the takeaway was clear: experts frequently missed the mark when anticipating the future of their own domains, though they were better at predicting outcomes outside their field.
The danger of tunnel vision
The Tetlock study underscores a critical point: expertise can be a double-edged sword. While deep knowledge is indispensable, it can also create a myopic view when experts work in silos, obscuring the larger landscape where the biggest disruptions often come from. This tunnel vision can be fatal in today’s world, where ambiguity and uncertainty are increasingly prevalent.
Take mobile phones. Few telecommunications experts could foresee that these devices, initially designed for basic communication, would reshape nearly every aspect of modern life and become the centrepiece of a digital ecosystem that now drives the global economy. Likewise, experts in banking largely missed how mobile technology would radically change financial services, opening the door to a wave of fintech disruptors.
Broadening the horizon: Futures Cone
Strategic foresight breaks through these narrow lenses we, as humans, tend to rely on when thinking about the future. It urges decision-makers to consider how seemingly unrelated, cross-industry forces might come together to create new opportunities or threats.
One key framework in the strategic foresight toolkit is the Futures Cone. It systematically maps a spectrum of potential futures, from the conceivable to the desirable, guiding strategic thinking in multiple directions.
1. Possible Futures: These encompass all conceivable scenarios, from highly probable to highly improbable. They push the boundaries of conventional thinking and encourage creativity. By considering even the most outlandish possibilities, organisations can anticipate and prepare for radical shifts and disruptions.
2. Plausible Futures: These are futures that could realistically happen based on current knowledge. They provide a logical extension of present realities and are grounded in scientific and technological possibilities, economic forecasts, and sociopolitical conditions. Plausible futures help organisations plan for changes that, while not guaranteed, are within the realm of realistic expectations.
3. Probable Futures: These are the most likely future scenarios based on existing trends and data, and are often the primary focus of traditional strategic planning. Probable futures provide a baseline for understanding what might happen if present conditions persist, and are useful in planning for continuity.
4. Preferable Futures: These reflect the goals and values of an organisation or society, and represent the futures they strive to create. Preferable futures guide strategic visioning and goal-setting, and encourage organisations to take an active role in steering futures towards their desired direction.
The value of exploring beyond the probable
While it’s important to prepare for the most likely scenarios, they only provide part of the picture. Venturing beyond the narrow range of probable futures allows organisations to better understand their role within a larger context and identify new, sometimes unconventional, pathways to success.
Netflix is a classic example. At a time when industry giants were doubling down on the highly profitable traditional DVD rental model, Netflix looked beyond these probable futures and bet on a possible future where subscription services and digital streaming would become the norm. By making this bold move early, it fundamentally reshaped the entertainment industry and set the standard for what was to come.
For those ready to embrace this broad view, the future is not just a series of inevitable outcomes but a landscape rich with possibilities. This wider perspective equips organisations to anticipate change and empowers them to drive it, staying agile and ready to pivot as new realities emerge.
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To stay ahead, organisations must widen their lens, exploring not just their own industry but what’s happening on the edges.