Rebuilding Ukraine: Four Future Scenarios
UPDATED ANALYSIS - APRIL 2025: The cost of Ukraine's reconstruction stands at a staggering $486 billion—and climbs higher with each passing day. Timely decisions on investments and resources will define the nation’s post-war recovery and long-term future.
FUTURE PROOF – BLOG BY FUTURES PLATFORM
Back in November 2024, we outlined four potential scenarios for Ukraine’s post-war recovery and their implications for governments, international organisations, businesses and civil society. Since then, the geopolitical and economic landscape surrounding Ukraine has evolved significantly. Under the new Trump administration, US support for Ukraine has become more conditional and transactional, with a stronger push for a negotiated settlement. Meanwhile, European powers are scrambling to fill the vacuum. Against this backdrop, it is time to revisit the reconstruction scenarios for Ukraine.
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The report Rebuilding Ukraine offers an in-depth examination of the scenarios introduced in this blog, with detailed strategic guidance for governments, businesses, and international organisations involved in Ukraine’s recovery.
Key uncertainties behind the scenarios
Our initial scenario analysis was grounded in six key uncertainties expected to shape Ukraine’s post-war future. Each scenario explored how these drivers might evolve and interact, offering insight into the potential trajectories for Ukraine’s recovery and future prosperity.
We begin our reassessment by examining whether these uncertainties still hold, and how they may have shifted in light of recent developments.
UNCERTAINTY 1
Extent of damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure caused by Russia
The scale of destruction is unlikely to increase dramatically if a ceasefire is brokered soon. However, if the war drags on, and especially if Ukraine loses US military support, Russia could intensify attacks, compounding reconstruction challenges.
UNCERTAINTY 2
Return of refugees to Ukraine
Still deeply uncertain in terms of scale and timetable. Much depends on security, economic prospects, and the availability of funding to support reintegration.
UNCERTAINTY 3
Population shift from Eastern to Western Ukraine
This remains highly uncertain in terms of scale and timetable. If Russia solidifies control over occupied territories, displacement may become permanent.
UNCERTAINTY 4
Ukrainians’ motivation and capacity for reconstruction
Public sentiment remains resolute, but fatigue is setting in. If sovereignty is compromised in a peace deal, political unrest within Ukraine may impact the nation’s ability to coordinate reconstruction.
UNCERTAINTY 5
External help to finance reconstruction
US funding hasn’t vanished but has become less reliable, raising doubts about its long-term consistency. Private American firms may invest selectively, especially in sectors like mineral refining.
The EU and international financial institutions (IMF, EBRD) could step in, but without US backing, securing the full estimated reconstruction cost will be difficult. China and Gulf states may offer alternatives, though likely with geopolitical strings attached.
UNCERTAINTY 6
Ukraine’s capacity to protect its sovereignty
Ukraine's military position has weakened, with shortages in ammunition, advanced weaponry, and surveillance intelligence. European support helps but may not fully replace US capabilities. Russia’s leverage in peace talks has increased, with US and Russian views now aligning on keeping Ukraine out of NATO and limiting Western military presence in Ukraine.
Learn more about our scenario-building method here.
SCENARIO 1 (Most likely scenario now)
A divided Ukraine focuses on rebuilding the Western regions
The war ends with Ukraine ceding eastern territories to Russia, a difficult compromise that has secured sovereignty but left lasting challenges. Reconstruction is moving ahead rapidly in the Western and Central regions, fueled by substantial international aid and a population committed to contributing to rebuilding efforts. These areas are seeing new urban developments and a wave of entrepreneurial activity.
In contrast, Eastern Ukraine under Kyiv’s control is struggling. Depopulation, severed trade links with Russia and the resulting economic collapse have slowed progress and deepened the divide. Many displaced families have migrated westward, where targeted programs are helping them settle into new homes, jobs, and communities.
April 2025 Update
Recent events has increased the likelihood of this scenario.
The US pressuring Ukraine into an unfavorable peace deal aligns with this scenario.
If peace is reached and holds—despite US reluctance to guarantee security—reconstruction could begin as outlined in this scenario, though at a slower pace due to funding gaps.
SCENARIO 2 (Likelihood remains the same)
Ukraine’s reconstruction stalls amid a frozen conflict
The war in Ukraine remains frozen, where neither side can achieve decisive victories. Sporadic attacks continue to disrupt daily life and deter rebuilding efforts in many areas. Resources and international aid are prioritised for sustaining the war effort, and external financial support declines as donor fatigue sets in.
In more stable regions, grassroots initiatives are making modest progress, repairing homes, schools, and critical infrastructure. Government subsidies and a sense of stability, even if fragile, have encouraged some Ukrainians to resettle in the East, though refugee returns remain limited. Despite the local progress, large-scale reconstruction remains on hold amid the unresolved conflict.
April 2025 Update
The possibility of a fragile ceasefire under US push remains valid.
EU funding alone may not be enough to jumpstart full-scale reconstruction, potentially leading to stagnation.
Gaps in military aid and Russia’s continued influence could keep the war in a low-intensity but prolonged state.
SCENARIO 3 (More likely now than before)
Ukraine’s reconstruction falters under Russian control
The war ends with Russia annexing all of Ukraine, backed by strong support from China, Iran, and North Korea. The toll is devastating: 80% of Ukraine’s infrastructure lies in ruins. Under Russian control, reconstruction is limited to strategic areas that serve Moscow’s political and economic interests, often ignoring the needs of Ukrainians.
Workforce shortages deepen the crisis. A mass exodus of the working-age population has drastically reduced rebuilding capacity, while pollution and poor living conditions in Eastern Ukraine push many residents westward.
With no Western support and limited external investment, living conditions worsen. Widespread despair fuels guerrilla resistance, which grows more organised and challenges Russia’s fragile grip on the territory.
April 2025 Update
The likelihood of this scenario has increased due to Ukraine’s worsening military position. Ukrainian forces are stretched thin, with growing shortages of ammunition, intelligence, and experienced personnel.
While this scenario remains less likely than Scenario 2, the gap between them is narrowing.
Russia could expand its occupation if Ukraine's defenses weaken due to a lack of US support and ammunition shortages. If Moscow secures additional resources from abroad, it could achieve new military victories.
A US-brokered peace deal could enforce Russian territorial gains, leading to de facto Russian control over more Ukrainian territory.
However, there are also some counterforces working against this scenario. Russia’s own military is severely depleted, and its economy is under significant strain. Additionally, European nations have pledged to increase military aid to Ukraine to offset the potential loss of US support.
SCENARIO 4 (Least likely scenario now)
Ukraine’s reconstruction moves ahead rapidly
A Ukrainian victory restores pre-war borders and sets the stage for rapid reconstruction. With substantial international support from allies such as the EU, the US, and Japan, combined with Russian reparations, Ukraine has transformed into a massive construction site. Refugees return en masse, filling workforce gaps and driving development across the nation.
Grassroots initiatives complement large-scale projects, rehabilitating the polluted Eastern regions and rebuilding infrastructure. The large-scale progress accelerates Ukraine’s integration with Western institutions, including the EU and NATO, and solidifies Ukraine’s path toward stability, security, and growth.
April 2025 Update
The probability of Ukraine fully reclaiming its territories and launching a large-scale reconstruction effort has significantly decreased.
The possible loss of US military intelligence and defense support makes it unlikely that Ukraine will mount a successful counteroffensive.
What will these scenarios mean for governments, policymakers, businesses, and the international community?
Discover the full implications in our report, with detailed strategic guidance for governments, businesses, and international organisations involved in Ukraine’s recovery.
